Please help me decide if buying a Tesla makes sense

Hey everyone, I’m trying to figure out whether buying a Tesla (either new or used) makes sense for me, and I’ve broken down the numbers for both short-term and long-term costs comparing it to my current car.

I’m hoping to get some feedback to see if I’m missing anything or trying too hard to justify my desire to switch to a Tesla. I used numbers and costs I found online and my actual for 2024. Chat GPT helped me with the math.

Here’s a list of all the assumptions used in the calculation:

Driving & Usage Assumptions 1. Annual Driving Distance: 70,000 km/year for my job (sales). 2. Current Vehicle: 2017 RAV4 with 100,000 km. Fully paid for. 3. Tesla Models Considered: Used 2021 Tesla Model Y and new Tesla Model Y (Juniper, 2025 model).

Cost Assumptions

Fuel & Electricity 1. Fuel Economy (RAV4): 9.3 L/100 km (RAV4). 2. Gas Price: $1.58 per liter for 2024 in Ontario (estimate based on current prices). 3. Electricity Cost for Tesla: $0.16 per kWh (average rate in Ontario). 4. Tesla Energy Consumption: 18 kWh/100 km (Model Y energy consumption).

Maintenance 1. RAV4 Maintenance Costs: $4,000/year, which includes oil changes, tire replacements, brakes, etc. This is an estimate, considering high mileage. 2. Tesla Maintenance Costs: $2,520/year, including one tire replacement every 50,000 km at $450/tire, and minor services. • Tire Costs for Tesla: $450 per tire, assuming replacement every 50,000 km, and considering only one set of tires over the year for simplicity.

Insurance 1. RAV4 Insurance: $1,400/year. 2. Used Tesla Insurance (2021): $2,200/year. 3. New Tesla Insurance (Juniper): $2,500/year.

Financing & Depreciation 1. Down Payment on Tesla: $15,000 down payment, also selling my 2015 Ford Escape for $5,000. 2. Loan Terms for Tesla: • 60-month term. • Financing cost for used Tesla Model Y: $580/month for 60 months. • Financing cost for new Tesla Model Y (Juniper): $900/month for 60 months. 3. Depreciation: • RAV4: Estimated depreciation of $2,000/year. • Used Tesla (2021): Estimated depreciation of $6,000/year. • New Tesla (Juniper): Estimated depreciation of $9,600/year in the first year.

Resale Value 1. RAV4 Resale Value (5 Years): Estimated at $10,000 after 5 years. 2. Used Tesla Model Y (2021) Resale Value (5 Years): Estimated at $22,500 after 5 years. 3. New Tesla Model Y (Juniper) Resale Value (5 Years): Estimated at $36,086 after 5 years.

Short-Term (Year 1) Costs Breakdown

• Used Tesla (2021): The total cost is almost the same as my RAV4 in the first year, but the Tesla saves on fuel and maintenance.
• New Tesla (Juniper): This is significantly more expensive upfront due to higher depreciation and financing costs in the first year.

Long-Term (5-Year) Costs

• Used Tesla (2021): It seems like the Tesla will be $21,865 cheaper than keeping my RAV4 over 5 years, thanks to lower fuel costs and slower depreciation.
• New Tesla (Juniper): It’s $5,451 cheaper than my RAV4 over 5 years, but the higher initial cost and financing make it a harder choice in the short term.

Summary & Questions for You • Best Option (Used Tesla Model Y 2021): This seems to be the most balanced option, with both short-term affordability and long-term savings. It’s $21,865 cheaper than keeping my RAV4 over 5 years. • New Tesla Model Y (Juniper): This one looks great for long-term ownership, but the higher upfront costs make it a bit hard to justify right now, especially if I’m mainly focused on short-term savings. • RAV4 (Keep It): Not sure it’s the best option, given the high fuel and maintenance costs, but it’s definitely cheaper upfront.

TL;DR: Based on these numbers, the Used Tesla Model Y (2021) seems like the most logical choice for me. It has the best long-term savings. Does this breakdown make sense to you all, or am I just trying to justify buying a Tesla? Any advice or things I might be missing?

Thanks in advance for the help!